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Author: Mike Percic
The five-year forecast from Brick Meets Click makes one thing clear: eGrocery isn’t slowing down. In fact, by 2029, online grocery sales in the U.S. are projected to account for 17% of the total grocery market, growing 5.2x faster than in-store sales.
For Grocers with a physical store network, pick up (also known as BOPIS or Click-and-Collect) sales are expected to grow faster (5.4%) than delivery (4.4%) or ship-to-home (2.8%) over the next 3 years. Pick up is expected to remain the favoured customer fulfilment method, accounting for nearly 47% of eGrocery sales.
While eGrocery will drive nearly half of all absolute dollar growth, the other half will still come from physical retail. And this is where retailers have a major opportunity, and challenge.
Grocers are facing a critical strategic crossroad. As eGrocery accelerates, they must make physical store assets more adaptive, productive, and aligned with omnichannel demand, while also growing in-store sales.
Grocers are left asking complex questions ranging from space and assortment planning to fulfilment and returns. These are not speculative questions. They’re data questions that require informed answers grounded in analytics.
How do we rebalance store space for hybrid fulfilment? Balancing customer experience with operational efficiency such as browsing, picking and micro-fulfilment become essential.
How do we optimize space utilization and productivity? Stores must serve many functions, more than what they were originally designed for. Assortment and space planning, fulfilment pathways, holding power and zone productivity are key.
How do we respond to local differences? Customer preferences for instore pick up or delivery and proximity to fulfilment centers need to be accounted for, where one-size fits all simply won’t allow for optimal outcomes for customers or the business.
How do we optimize to deal with growing operational complexity? Leveraging assortment and space planning decisions to streamline and reduce complexity and optimize productivity.
The eGrocery race requires retailers to get smarter with every meter of space and every dollar of inventory – and optimize through data, not instinct, to drive sustainable growth.
The good news? Most grocers already have the data they need to get moving and make an impact. The next step is activating it.
At Scalene, we help retailers turn physical space into competitive advantage through retail space intelligence.
If you're a grocery retailer planning your response to the eGrocery growth curve, let's talk.